CHAOS OR UNITY IN INDONESIA

1. Now that the adoption of the Canadian resolution [1] has
provided the Dutch with a face-saver it is possible that they may
allow the Republican leaders to have a meeting in Djocjakarta as a
change from Bangka. It is possible also that if The Hague
conference eventuates in the near future the Dutch may decide to
hand over full sovereignty to the United States of Indonesia
immediately. Unless there is a vast improvement in Indonesia's
internal situation before such a handover Indonesia will probably
become a second Burma.

2. The following trends leading to confusion, if not chaos, are
apparent:

(a) Conflict between Republican leaders on Bangka and Emergency
Government
Critchley pointed out in his cable K287 [2] of 15th March and in
his letter [3] of same date that there has already been some
criticism of the Bangka leaders taking decisions for which the
Emergency Government was given power on 19th December.

Dr. Sjafrudin Prawiranegara, Head of the Emergency Government,
stated in his communique issued from 'somewhere' on 5th March,
'The Dutch have unconditionally surrendered to Japan. Now they
again want to make a colony of our country under the disguise of a
Federal Government or the United States of Indonesia.' This
implies rejection of the Federal idea which has been accepted by
the Bangka leaders.

(b) Conflict within B.F.O.

There are indications of conflict between the Federalist leaders
who genuinely desire a sovereign independent U.S.I. such as Anak
Agung of East Indonesia and the Dutch puppets led by Sultan Hamid
the Second of Pontianak.

(c) According to press and radio reports 'balkanisation' of
Indonesia is not acceptable to large groups in Ambon, Menado and
Timor who do not wish to be included in the State of East
Indonesia.

3. Reports from military observers and other independent observers
such as Quentin Pope, George Kahin, H.R. Isaacs, and Dr. F.L.

Bakker show clearly that guerilla warfare, reprisals and terror
have caused chaos in large parts of Java and Sumatra.

The splits apparent before police action have deepened in the
guerilla movement. Among the guerillas are many bands owing
allegiance to different parties, persons and ideas. The main bands
are:

(a) T.N.I.

The regular Republican guerillas presumably owing allegiance to
General Sudirman and Dr. Sukarno are very active in the parts of
Java and Sumatra occupied by the Dutch since 19th December.

(b) Siliwangi Division
After the second police action the Siliwangi Division, which is
reported to comprise the best Republican troops, moved into
Pasundan and took up its position in the pre-Renville 'pockets'.

The Dutch have been unable to prevent this movement and the
Pasundan Government only control the large towns. Both are said to
desire co-operation with the Siliwangi Division against the Darul
Islam.

(c) Darul Islam
This extreme military and political Masjumi organization came into
existence after the first police action and aimed at the
establishment of an Islamic state in West Java. Following the
withdrawal of the T.N.I. from West Java under the Renville
Agreement [4] it filled the vacuum whence the Dutch could not
dislodge it. Earlier it won support from the people against the
Dutch but lately there has been a reaction as a result of its
terrorist excesses and sadistic tendencies. The Siliwangi Division
is managing to oust Darul Islam in Pasundan.

(d) Tan Malakka Group
The Tan Malakka Group, which is a conglomeration of many elements
including the Trotskyist, is clashing with the Republican and
Islamic guerillas. Tan Malakka is stated to have set up a
government of the Unitarian Republic of Indonesia.

(e) P.K.I. (Indonesian Communist Party)
According to Sjahrir Communist guerilla bands operate in Central
Java and clash with other guerilla bands. Sjaraffudin's
whereabouts are unknown.

(f) Gangs
There are many looting and murdering gangs terrorising the towns
and countryside.

4. From the above it is obvious that there is much truth in
Sjahrir's remark, 'I have great fear that even if we get our
independence it will be as bad as Burma all over again with
conflicts among different groups, cliques and personalities.'
5. If the Dutch continue their present policy lawlessness in
Indonesia will probably increase. If the Dutch hand over power in
the near future chaos will probably ensue.

6. Following suggestions might help to solve dilemma and unravel
tangle of contending inadequacies:-

(a) Press for a meeting of all Indonesian elements in a completely
free atmosphere, possibly at the Headquarters of the Emergency
Republican Government 'somewhere'. Meeting would decide policy in
event of Dutch hand over of power in near future;

(b) Send volunteer military observers to the major Republican
areas, e.g. Emergency Government and Siliwangi Division. Purpose
would be to get a clear picture from the Indonesian side.