Critical food shortage seems certain to develop in urban areas in
Japan from now until the end of September. As acknowledged by SCAP
representative at last Council meeting [1] the cause is not over
all deficiency of home production but excessive consumption in
last seven months because of hoarding in rural areas and extensive
black market. In Tokyo 40 per cent of the food consumed in
December was purchased on the black market.

SCAP officers have estimated that home production will only permit
average intake of 471 calories per diem in urban areas in the next
five months. Some officers estimate that intake of 1550 calories
necessary to prevent malnutrition [and unrest.] [2] To attain this
level imports of 2,600,000 tons would be required before the end
of September.

As reported in my A.C.J.8. I raised the question of food at the
last Council meeting but the chairman took the firm view that the
question of food imports to Japan was no matter for the Council.

Pending an explicit Directive from F.E.C. I feel that no useful
purpose could be served by pursuing this aspect further. [3]
However, food imports necessary during the next 5 months and next
year are closely related to the next rice crop which will be
harvested at the end of this year. A good crop would compensate
for low consumption in the next few months and with strict control
over distribution probably remove the necessity for large imports
next year.

Key to the next crop is fertilizer production which at present is
only 25 per cent of requirements. Practically no supplies of
superphosphates or potash. Production of ammonium sulphate,
particularly important for rice crop, about 30 per cent in all.

The only solution is import of fertilizers and raw materials for
their manufacture, particularly phosphate rock.

SCAP do not appear to have given the question of fertilizer
production and imports the attention it deserves. I propose at the
next Council meeting to raise the question of food again but
concentrate on the necessity to do everything possible now to
assure a good crop for next year and tighten the system of
rationing to prevent a recurrence of the present acute shortage.

After drawing attention to this aspect I propose to recommend that
special efforts be made to increase local production of
fertilizers and to arrange for imports of manufactured fertilizers
and of raw materials, will also stress the need to curb black
market.

Please instruct whether you approve.