Secretary of State [1] told the British Ambassador [2] today that
instructions have been given to American Consuls both in China and
Japan to warn American women and children to leave both countries
as soon as possible. Secretary of State further said that American
forces in China (Shanghai etc.) would also be instructed to leave.

He said the United States Government had come to the conclusion
that this was best way of bringing it home to Japanese that
[United States] [3] meant business.

Secretary of State referred again to subject of Staff
conversations to the effect that we should all consider joint
forces which would be available for common defence in the Pacific
and collation of our plans for defence so that prompt and wise
action could be taken if the Governments wanted to co-operate for
this purpose.

I would point out that at no time has the Secretary of State or
other senior official here ever indicated to the British
Ambassador or myself that the United States would fight in the Far
East or give us armed support if attacked but with this proviso
which I want to emphasize to you, it seems difficult to believe
that they do not intend to see this thing through with us.

This Staff Conversations proposal would appear to be most
important and far-reaching. Order for evacuation of American
nationals also seems to me movement of first class importance. I
got impression at Saturday's talk with the Secretary of State that
he did not quite realize what an important gesture it was.

The British Ambassador in reporting his conversation with
Secretary of State today goes on to say 'he does not believe that
Japan would challenge the British and Americans in the Pacific
until Germany and Italy had begun to win further victories in
Europe or Africa which weakened position of Britain and United
States in Atlantic sufficiently to compel the United States to
move part of their fleet from the Pacific to Atlantic.'
The British Ambassador continued that it seems to him that the
fundamental purpose of German-Japanese pact is to compel the
United States to face a serious menace both in the Pacific and
Atlantic. If dictators force their way through Spain and take
Gibraltar and North West Africa down to [Dakar] they would be able
to challenge formidably both Britain and United States by threats
to our communications in the Atlantic. This would be moment for
Japanese to move in the Pacific.

The British Ambassador then makes the point that the Staff
Conversations should be undertaken in respect of the Atlantic side
as well as Pacific and he has opened this up with the Secretary of
State and made suggestion to London.

I saw Welles [4] this morning and advised him your agreement with
confidential Staff Conversations. [5] He is to communicate with me
again on this tomorrow. Meanwhile I find officers could get here
by air from Australia by Oct. 21st. Subject to talk with Welles
tomorrow I would suggest that officers hold themselves ready to
catch earliest flying boat.

I suggested to Welles and to the British Ambassador today that New
Zealand be included in Staff Conversations.

British Ambassador's visit to London cancelled temporarily.

CASEY