Volume III: Asian Agrifood Demand Trends and Outlook to 2010

ISBN: 0-9750627-5-1

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade Subsistence

to Supermarket II Series

Agrifood Globalisation and Asia

Volume III: Asia's Agrifood Demand Trends and Outlook 2001-2010 - book cover

Volume III analyses the key factors driving the continued growth of Asian
agrifood demand, and presents modelling results of the possible size of
Asian demand for major agrifood categories by 2010, based on three scenarios
of future Asian economic growth (low/medium/high).

Executive Summary

Enormous change has taken place in Asian agrifood consumption patterns
in the past thirty or forty years, driven in particular by the effects of
economic growth and rises in per capita incomes, combined with population
growth and urbanisation. But even greater change is likely to occur in coming
decades. This report analyses the key factors that will drive further change
in Asian agrifood consumption patterns, and based on some modelling work,
looks at the possible scale of Asian agrifood demand by 2010 across 22 major
agrifood categories.

ASIAN AGRIFOOD MARKETS – HOW BIG ARE THEY?

Total annual Asian food and beverage expenditure was worth at least US$858
billion by 2000, using conservative calculations based on the most recent
available Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) for each Asian
economy (but was probably closer to US$1,100 billion), for approximately
3.393 billion people (2000). As would be expected, Japan is by far the biggest
market, worth at least US$322 billion based on HIES data – but probably
closer to US$500-600 billion per annum, based on the combination of separate
data on food and beverage retail sales and foodservice sales. China is the
next largest, worth US$188 billion in 2000, followed by India at almost
US$90 billion, Korea (ROK) at US$68 billion, and Taiwan at US$46 billion.
The Japanese food and beverage market is so large that even when divided
into its 8 main regions, the leading ones like Kanto (centring on Tokyo),
Kansai (centring on Osaka) and Chubu (including Nagoya) are still bigger
than most other Asian agrifood markets.

From a combination of population and higher urban per capita incomes, Asia's
major cities have the highest concentrations of food and beverage expenditure,
both in total and per capita terms. So rather than just compare the relative
size of food and beverage markets based on national boundaries, it will
be increasingly important to also focus on the comparative sizes of the
food and beverage markets of Asia's major cities and urban agglomerations.

KEY DRIVERS OF ASIAN AGRIFOOD DEMAND GROWTH

Population Growth

The continuing
growth of Asia's already enormous population is a major factor in
the region's large and ever growing demand for food. According to
UN data, the world's population reached around 5.67 billion in 1995,
with Asia, (For the SSII series, Asia is defined as comprising North-East
Asia (Japan, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, Korea [ROK], North Korea [DPRK],
Mongolia), South-East Asia (Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines,
Brunei, Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Burma/Myanmar), and South Asia (India,
Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives, Afghanistan).)
accounting for 3.17 billion, or just under 56 per cent of the total. By
2010, Asia's population is projected to reach approximately
3.79 billion, still just under 56 per cent of a projected world total of
6.8 billion. Also, by 2010 Asia will have six out of a world total of eleven
countries with populations over 100 million. India and China alone are projected
to still account for 37 per cent of the world's population by 2010.

Demographic Change

Yet while Asia will continue to be the world's
most populous region, its population growth is decelerating. Also, the combination
of falling birth rates and extended life expectancy in most Asian economies
is resulting in expanding population numbers in older age cohorts. This
is particularly noticeable in higher income Asian economies, with Japan
leading the trend – 21 per cent of Japan's population is projected
to be aged 65 years and older by 2010. But even in China, there could be
over 8 per cent of the population, or 110 million people, aged 65 and over
by 2010.

Older people tend to eat smaller quantities of food than younger
people, with more focus on specific characteristics such as quality, health
and nutrition benefits. Increasing numbers of people living in aged care
facilities will push up the demand for institutional foodservice. Older
people living in single households or even as a couple in higher income
Asian economies are also purchasing more prepared meals in their food
shopping.

At the same time, a large number of developing Asian economies
will continue to have largely youthful populations, with very large 0
- 24 age cohorts, well above 50 per cent of their total populations by 1995,
and several still projected to be above or near this level by 2010. Younger
people tend to eat more of food and beverage products like snacks, soft
drinks, icecream and fast food, than older people.

Urbanisation

A steady trend of urbanisation has been underway in Asia over
the past half century, mostly due to economic diversification with growing
manufacturing and services sectors, and the accompanying shift of population
from rural areas to centres of greater employment opportunities and higher
wages. In most of Asia this trend is now accelerating. With rural populations
still in the majority in much of developing Asia – most significantly,
72 per cent in India, 64 per cent in China and 59 per cent in Indonesia – this
means the addition of large numbers of people to Asia's cities in
coming decades. For example, China's urban: rural population ratio
is projected to change from 36:64 in 2000 to 45:55 by 2010, which will mean
another 160 million people living in Chinese cities. This will be a remarkable
change within such a short period.

Asia already contains many of the world's
largest cities. By 2000, Asia already had at least 25 cities with a population
of 4 million or more, and included in this number at least five of the world's
mega-cities – those with a population of 10 million or more (Mumbai,
New Delhi, Calcutta, Tokyo and Seoul), as well as several others close to
this size (such as Shanghai, Manila, Dhaka, Karachi and Jakarta). China
and India alone each have at least 20 cities with over 1 million in population.
With the projected growth in Asia's population, combined with increasing
urbanisation, the number and scale of Asia's large cities will continue
to grow.

This burgeoning of a remarkable array of major cities all across Asia will
be a major driver of growth in demand for food and beverages in the Asian
region. Urban dwellers generally have higher incomes than those in rural
areas, and this translates into greater urban per capita expenditure on
food and beverages (though representing a smaller percentage share of their
total expenditure than it does for rural inhabitants). Urban dwellers tend
to demand larger amounts of food and beverages, of better quality and greater
variety, and with a higher proportion of processed food and beverages. Urban
dwellers also tend to use formal market channels more for obtaining their
food supplies and use foodservice much more than rural inhabitants. This
difference is particularly evident in developing economies. So Asia's
cities will increasingly be the region's main hubs of agrifood demand
growth. Or, to express it in words similar to those of French historian
Fernand Braudel about eighteenth and nineteenth century Europe, Asia's
agrifood demand and supply patterns will be increasingly driven by the "ever
growing bellies" of Tokyo and Seoul, Mumbai and Shanghai, Jakarta
and Bangkok, as well as hundreds of other Asian cities.

Economic Growth
and Per Capita Income Growth

The remarkable economic growth of Japan from
the 1950s on enabled it to achieve a per capita income level comparable
with the leading Western economies by 1970. High levels of economic growth
achieved by much of the rest of East Asia from the 1960s and 1970s onward,
meant average per capita income growth of over 5 per cent per annum for
the leading Asian economies for nearly three decades into the 1990s. South
Asia over the same period averaged slightly below 2 per cent per annum,
the same as Latin America. But from the start of substantial economic reform
in 1991, India's per capita income growth picked up to average 3.5
- 4 per cent per annum over 1991-2001. It has been widely recognised that
the rate of economic growth and rise in per capita incomes is the major
driver of growth in per capita food demand.

One can commonly see this occurring
in approximately three stages:

i. initial per capita income growth is used
for increasing consumption of traditional primary staple grains (such as
rice), with reduced consumption of traditional secondary staples (such as
roots and tubers);

ii. further income growth is used for consumption of
an alternative staple grain (such as wheat) and increased consumption of
livestock products (meat, fish and dairy products), and other high value
foods like fruit and vegetables, and more processed foods, while consumption
of the traditional staple grain plateaus;

iii. further income growth is
used primarily for increased consumption of livestock products and higher
value foods, while direct consumption of both traditional and alternative
staple grains declines.

This pattern of dietary change is particularly evident
in the initial stages of per capita income growth, from about US$1,000 up
to about US$7,000. However, all rises in income affect the pattern of food
and beverage consumption. This per capita income effect on the pattern of
agrifood consumption can be seen in every Asian economy. For example, one
can look at the case of Korea (ROK), which experienced 3 per cent annual
per capita income growth over 1960-85, and around 5 per cent per annum for
most of the 1980s and 1990s, so that it passed US$10,000 per capita by 1995
(though subsequently shrank somewhat due to the Asian crisis and large Won
depreciation against the US$). Korea's per capita rice consumption
continued to increase to a peak of around 140 kg in the late 1970s, after
which it started falling, down to around 90 kg by 2000, while direct consumption
of wheat and wheat products is still going up (quite apart from feed wheat
use). Meat consumption has grown ten-fold and continues to increase. Consumption
of milk and dairy products has grown almost ten-fold but is still less than
half the level of Japan, so it is likely to grow further. Fish and seafood
consumption grew almost four-fold over the period.

Another factor affecting the pattern of agrifood demand growth within an
economy is the degree of equality or inequality of income distribution.
The urban/rural economic divide appears to be the biggest factor in unequal
income distribution across most of developing Asia. This is particularly
seen in the different levels of average per capita expenditure on food and
beverages in urban and rural areas, with urban levels usually double those
of rural areas. The 1990s brought significant disruptions to the upward
pattern of economic growth in East Asia, including the bursting of Japan's
1985-1990 bubble economy and subsequent decade-long slowdown, and the general
watershed of the 1997 Asian financial crisis. These disruptions marked a
new stage in the region's economic development, with less uniform
trends and more differentiated performance among economies, and less certainty
about future per capita income growth. So far, East Asia as a whole has
continued to enjoy the highest average GDP per capita growth since 1999,
compared to other parts of the world. But many challenges remain for all
Asian economies to tackle, with the success or otherwise of each Asian economy
mainly determining the future course of per capita income growth of its
citizens.

To incorporate a broad range of future possible per capita income growth
paths in Asia, and their effects on agrifood demand, the modelling done
for the SSII project used three different scenarios of possible GDP (and
GDP per capita) growth to 2010 - low, medium and high - for each major Asian
economy, as explained further below.

Agrifood Prices

A key consideration
for the majority of Asian consumers in their purchasing choices of food
and beverages is, of course, price. The actual price and price structure
for each food and beverage product within an economy will be affected by
many factors, including international agricultural commodity prices, seasonal
and cyclical fluctuations in local agricultural production, domestic systems
of agricultural production, agrifood processing and distribution infrastructure,
the nature of government policies applied to each part of the agrifood chain
(including taxation, subsidisation and regulation), an economy's international
and domestic trade regimes, and general economic conditions.

Prices vary
considerably for many agrifood products from one Asian economy to another,
and also in different regions within an economy, due to one or more of these
factors, and affect the level of consumer demand.

Other Factors

A host of
other factors is also influencing the pattern and direction of Asian
agrifood demand trends. Asia is increasingly affected by the globalisation
of diets, though some strong cultural differences remain, prominently those
related to religious or customary dietary restrictions. There is growing
consumer interest in food safety, food integrity, food quality, and health
and nutrition issues, particularly among higher income consumers. (The 2003-2004
outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza [HPAI, sub-type H5N1] has
been yet another instance in recent years of a serious livestock disease
outbreak sharpening Asian consumer concerns about food safety.)

Asian economies are
still making up their minds about the issue of GM foods, though consumers
in most higher income Asian economies, especially Japan, Korea (ROK), Taiwan
and Hong Kong, have shown reluctance to accept them, and partly in reaction
are increasingly choosing foods labelled non-GM or organic. Changing consumer
lifestyles, including more women in the formal workforce and smaller households
across Asia, are intensifying consumer demand for convenience in their food
and beverage expenditure, including more eating away from home and more
purchases of prepared foods and meals. In addition, the modernisation of
food and beverage processing, retailing and foodservice, as well as consolidation
of corporate agrifood players within each market, is translating into larger-scale
sourcing of agrifood products and materials from fewer, bigger agrifood
companies, both Asian and foreign, operating in Asian markets.

MODELLING
ASIAN AGRIFOOD DEMAND TRENDS TO 2010

As one way of gaining a reasonably
credible picture of the possible future scale of Asian agrifood demand,
some modelling work was commissioned from the Washington-based International
Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), part of the Consultative Group on
International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) network, in conjunction with
some supplementary work by a team from the Australian National University
(ANU). The IFPRI IMPACT Model was used to project the likely scale of total
annual Asian demand (plus domestic supply and net trade) by 2010 for 22 agrifood
products, using a base year of 1997 (average of three years 1996-98), arising
from per capita income growth based on three scenarios of GDP growth (low,
medium and high) for each major Asian economy.

The 22 agrifood products or
product groupings covered by IMPACT are: all grains (also disaggregated
into rice, wheat, maize, other grains), soybeans, oilseed and other cakes
and meals, edible oils, all meat (also disaggregated into pork, poultry
meat, beef and buffalo meat, and sheepmeat/goatmeat), milk and milk products,
roots and tubers, potatoes, temperate vegetables, tropical and sub-tropical
fruits, temperate fruits, sugar, and other natural sweeteners. The detailed
results for each of these agrifood products is presented in graphs, tables
and text, for Asia as a whole, for each of the three regions of North-East,
South-East and South Asia, and for each of the 17 major Asian economies
or grouping of economies covered in the modelling work.

From the IMPACT
modelling results it is clear that even if Asian economies grow at
only modest rates to 2010, there will still be a significant increase in
Asia's total annual agrifood demand
from the level of the base year 1997. But if Asian economies grow
at medium or high rates, there will be a remarkable increase. A summary
of the demand results is shown in the first table below, starting with
the size of actual total annual consumption for each agrifood category
in the base year 1997, then the possible size of total demand by 2010
under each of the three GDP growth rate scenarios, and what this would
mean in terms of net increase in demand for each category. A second
table follows which shows the consequent possible scale of annual net
trade by 2010. Key results of the modelling include:

• Over
the period 1997-2010, Asia's total annual demand for grains could expand
from 806 million tonnes in the base year 1997 to within a range of 996 - 1,040
million tonnes by 2010. This would mean an increase of 190 million tonnes
in the case of low GDP growth rates, but possibly of between 211 and 234 million
tonnes in the case of medium or high economic growth rates. Asia's
annual net imports of grains could rise from around 58 million tonnes
in the base year to 107 - 119 million tonnes by 2010. Within grains, total
annual wheat demand could rise from 232 million tonnes in 1997 to between
285 and 300 million tonnes by 2010, an increase of perhaps 53 - 67 million
tonnes, and with annual net imports projected to rise from 28 million
tonnes to 48 - 55 million tonnes.

• Asia's
total demand for meat could be 29 million tonnes higher by 2010 compared to
the level of 1997, under conditions of low average economic growth, but could
be as much as 39 to 50 million tonnes higher in the case of medium or high
economic growth rates. This could translate into annual net imports of meat
of between 2.1 (low scenario), 5.7 (medium) and 9.3 (high) million tonnes
by 2010. Within this, Asian demand for beef (and buffalo meat) is projected
by IMPACT to rise from 11.7 million tonnes in 1997 to a range of 17 million
tonnes (low scenario), 19.3 (medium) or 21.5 (high) million tonnes, with net
imports of between 1.24 (low), 2.3 (medium) or 3.1 (high) million tonnes.
Pork is projected to remain Asia's most consumed meat, with total
demand likely to rise from 45 million tonnes in 1997 to between 58 - 66
million tonnes by 2010, with annual net imports of 0.14 million tonnes
(low), or 1.4 (medium) or 2.5 (high) million tonnes.

• Asia's total consumption of milk and milk products (expressed
in raw milk equivalent terms) expanded from around 35 million tonnes in
the early 1960s to 130 million tonnes by the base year 1997. Even in the
case of low economic growth over the 1997-2010 period, Asia's total
dairy demand could expand to 171 million tonnes. But in the case of medium
or high economic growth, total demand could reach between 187 and 207 million
tonnes by 2010. This would represent a demand increase in the range of 41
- 78 million tonnes by 2010. Within this increase in overall volume, the
proportion of processed dairy products consumed is likely to expand further.
Asia's long standing gap between dairy production and demand is likely
to continue to grow, so that Asia's annual net dairy imports could
range between 7 million tonnes (low growth scenario), and 13 - 21 million
tonnes (medium/high growth scenarios) by 2010.

• Asia's total
annual consumption of edible oils is projected to rise from 40 million
tonnes in 1997, to perhaps 55 million tonnes by 2010 under a low scenario,
or else 60 (medium) or 65 (high) million tonnes. North-East Asia and South
Asia would continue to have large net imports under all three scenarios,
while South-East Asia would expand its very large net exports (mainly
palm oil). Importantly, as their per capita incomes rise, Asian consumers
are varying and diversifying the types of edible oils they consume, and
with growing demand for healthier oils.

• Total annual demand for temperate vegetables is projected to rise
from 349 million tonnes in 1997, to between 447 million tonnes (low
scenario), or 474 (medium) or 500 (high) million tonnes by 2010, with
China and India by far the largest consumers by volume, but higher income
economies remaining more significant in terms of value. This represents
a possible increase in annual demand of 97 - 151 million tonnes. A key
consumption change that will emerge more clearly, is that as their per
capita incomes rise, Asian consumers increasingly are replacing coarser,
cheaper and higher volume vegetables, with more varied, better quality,
more expensive and often lower volume vegetables.

• Asia's demand for fruit, both tropical/sub-tropical
and temperate, is projected to continue growing significantly. Annual
demand for tropical/sub-tropical fruit could be 23 - 39 million tonnes
higher by 2010 compared to 1997, and temperate fruit could be 15 - 25
million tonnes higher. Volume demand for the overall category of fruit
(and vegetable) juice may have plateaued in higher income economies, but
all across Asia, there is increasing demand by higher income consumers
for 100 per cent pure juice of better quality, instead of lower cost diluted
juice drinks.

• Asia's major growth in sugar consumption (that is, centrifugal
sugar derived from sugar cane or sugar beet) over recent decades can be
expected to continue. Total consumption of 39 million tonnes by 1997 is
projected to increase to either 51 million tonnes by 2010 under a low scenario,
or 55 million tonnes under a medium scenario, or even 61 million tonnes
under a high scenario. Moderate but significant growth in per capita sugar
demand in the lower income economies of Asia, especially in China, India
and Indonesia, will underlie this trend. Asia's annual net sugar
imports could rise from 3.3 million tonnes in 1997, to between 5.8 (low),
7.9 (medium) or 10.4 (high) million tonnes by 2010.

Demand trends for a number of other agrifood categories not specifically
included in the modelling were also analysed, such as beverages, pulses,
and fish and seafood. Key findings in these sectors include:

• Fish
and seafood still comprises the single most important source of animal
protein in much of Asia, with the level of per capita fish and seafood
consumption as great as or greater than total per capita meat consumption
in many Asian economies. Total annual fish and seafood consumption reached
approximately 37 million tonnes in the base year 1997, and over 40 million
tonnes by 2001, and one could conservatively estimate this figure reaching
at least 50-60 million tonnes by 2010. In addition to greater volumes,
as their per capita incomes rise, Asian consumers look for better quality
and a greater variety of fish and seafood.

• In the category of non-alcoholic beverages, while demand growth
for traditional carbonated beverages is slowing, there is a major shift
by higher income consumers towards beverages with greater perceived health
benefits such as bottled water and 'nearwater', pure fruit
and vegetable juices, and tea beverages. Coffee consumption is also growing.
In particular, while Asia has the lowest average per capita consumption
of bottled water in the world, at around 6 litres by 2002, it also has
the highest level of annual growth in volume of demand (15 per cent in
2002), so that major growth in Asian bottled water consumption can be
forecast.

• Asia's
beer consumption reached approximately 382 million hectolitres by 2001,
with average annual volume growth of about 5 per cent in recent years. Given
the still moderate average per capita intake levels in key developing Asian
economies with large populations, notably China, Vietnam, Thailand and the
Philippines, and also India and Indonesia, there is strong potential for
further major growth in Asian beer consumption. This will mean further significant
growth in Asia's demand for malting barley and barley malt.

• While
grape-based wine is a relatively new alcoholic beverage for the majority
of Asian consumers, and national average per capita consumption levels are
still very low, yet consumption is growing rapidly in some markets. So Asia's
total consumption of around 755 million litres by 2001 can be expected
to grow markedly in the coming decade.

A key issue is that the higher the level
of income growth and consequently per capita demand, in general, the less
likely that Asia's production of a considerable number of agrifood
categories would attain the same rate of growth in output in order to keep
up with demand, so that higher levels of imports would probably result.
On the other hand, in agrifood categories where Asia has traditionally been
a strong surplus producer, in the case of low income growth with consequent
low per capita demand growth, the region's existing production surplus
and net exports would probably increase. But in the case of medium or high
growth, its net trade surplus could plateau or even fall somewhat.

For example,
the overall trade deficit for temperate vegetables of 0.5 million tonnes
in 1997 could possibly change to a net trade surplus of 5.6 million tonnes
by 2010 in the case of low growth on average for the region. But in the
case of medium or high income growth with consequently higher demand, the
region's net trade deficit in temperate vegetables could increase
to perhaps 1.8 (medium) or 8.3 (high) million tonnes by 2010. Of course,
within this overall trade picture there is a different set of net trade
results for each Asian economy, and different trends for each different
item within these aggregated agrifood categories.

An important point to
keep in mind in looking at the modelling's net trade results, is that
the modelling in general assumed levels of trade protection for each Asian
economy as existed at the conclusion of the Uruguay Round (due to lack of
later reliable data on summary levels of protection for most Asian economies).
With further trade liberalisation, the results could be different, with
probably higher levels of imports for a number of agrifood categories, as
well as higher levels of exports in agrifood categories where Asian economies
might be strong producers.

It was evident in comparing the 1997 (1996-98) base year data and the modelling
projections with more recent FAO and USDA data (for 1999-2002) that Asian
consumption of the agrifood categories included in the modelling has in
most cases recovered from any declines occasioned by the Asian financial
crisis, and generally continued to grow in line with the projections. In
a few cases, as detailed in the relevant part of the text, there may have
been slower recovery from the crisis and slower growth than projected; for
example, by 2001 Indonesia's total poultry meat consumption at 0.82
million tonnes had still not regained its 1996 pre-crisis peak consumption
level of 0.96 million tonnes, so that it may not quite reach the projected
range of 1.25 - 1.8 million tonnes by 2010.

On the other hand, in some cases,
consumption may have grown faster than projected; for example, Thailand's
total consumption of wheat and wheat products was projected to rise from
0.56 million tonnes in 1997 to between 0.68 and 0.76 million tonnes by 2010,
but over 1999-2001 total consumption already averaged 0.7 million tonnes,
so the projection range appears likely to be exceeded. The projections are
intended to be indicative, rather than definitive, and it will be important
to continue monitoring consumption trends against the projected ranges.

OTHER KEY TRENDS

However, just as important as the likely increases in
quantity of Asian total demand for each agrifood category, is the ongoing
increase in demand for better quality of agrifood products. As per capita
incomes rise, consumers look not just for more rice or wheat, meat and fish/seafood,
dairy products, fruit and vegetables, and so forth, they also look for better
quality products in these food categories. This pattern can be seen across
the whole spectrum of food and beverage products, from apples to orange
juice, from fish and seafood to edible oils, from pork to pulses. So in
higher income Asian economies, even where the rate of demand growth for
an agrifood product might be smaller in volume terms in future than in the
past, consumers are choosing better quality products within the same volume
of per capita consumption, and with more specific characteristics such as
with better guarantees of food safety, or with additional nutritional features,
and usually at a higher unit price.

Higher income consumers are also increasingly
choosing cleaner, more hygienic and better presented surroundings for purchasing
or consuming food and beverage products. This trend can also be seen occurring
among higher income consumers in lower income Asian economies. The projected
major increases in the scale of Asian agrifood demand by 2010 (and beyond),
and just as importantly, the ever growing higher quality and more specific
characteristics of agrifood products looked for by Asian consumers, will
transform the landscape of Asian domestic agrifood supply systems as they
endeavour to meet these demands by consumers.

Agribusiness will increasingly
replace the old subsistence and cash crop agricultural systems, and Asian
agriculture will become more efficient. Asian agrifood companies will strive
harder to be competitive suppliers of the agrifood products demanded by
the region's consumers. As Asian agrifood markets grow larger and
more valuable, there will also be even keener interest by foreign agrifood
players in participating in supplying those markets, who will compete determinedly
to meet the quality and other characteristics demanded by higher income
consumers in particular.

CHALLENGES FOR AUSTRALIA

It will be important for Australian agrifood suppliers
to consider their future potential capacity and strategies to supply both
the increasing volumes and additional product characteristics that will
be required by expanding Asian agrifood markets, not just a year or two
ahead, but in the coming five to ten years. Improving information on and
understanding of continuing changes in agrifood demand (and supply) patterns
in Asian agrifood markets will be a crucial part of such planning.

Considering
the very large volumes of potential demand projected for each agrifood category
by the IMPACT modelling, compared with the relatively moderate volumes of
most of Australia's agrifood export capacity, a key strategy for
Australia will be continuing to seek to maximise the average unit price
for exported agrifood products, by excelling in the product quality and
precise characteristics demanded in particular by higher income Asian consumers.
There should also be more emphasis given by Australian suppliers to developing
and supplying unique high quality food and beverage products with a distinct
Australian identity but which are comprehensible and of appeal to Asian
consumers, including marketable brand names and packaging. Australian agrifood
suppliers should also be giving increased attention to the full range of
potential customers in Asian markets.

See also:
Executive Summary (pdf, 44kB)
Table of Contents (pdf,
26kB)

Minister's Media Release: Strong Growth in Asian Agrifood Demand Forecast

July 2004

Price: AUD35.00 (including GST)

Contact Details

Judith Laffan, Principal Analyst, Agrifood Research

Agriculture & Food Branch, Office of Trade Negotiations

Phone: +61 2 6261 2605 Fax: +61 2 6261 1858

Email: judith.laffan@dfat.gov.au

Last Updated: 17 January 2010

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