My dear Prime Minister,

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURE, ROME

I have at last been able to complete my report on the General
Assembly of the International Institute of Agriculture at Rome and
I am forwarding the document by today's mail. In view of the
delicate relations with the Italian Government, I suggest that the
report should be regarded as confidential but I should be glad if
you would arrange for Dr. Rivett [1] to see the document. The
report with its appendices makes a bulky mass of papers and I am
therefore enclosing a copy of my own statement, together with the
report of the British Delegation, so that you can read these
without being burdened with extraneous matter.

WINE

The report on the Wine situation, to which I referred in my last
letter, has now been completed and I have advised Trumble [2] to
forward it to you as a report which he considers might be regarded
as being for the confidential information of Ministers.

POLITICAL SITUATION

Last Sunday the 'Observer' published an article by Garvin [3] on
the political prospects of parties at the next General Election
here. The article seems of sufficient interest to forward to you.

Garvin seems to anticipate a heavy revival of the Labour forces;

if this occurs, it will be mainly due to the Government's sins of
omission rather than those of commission. I was stimulated by
Garvin's article to do a little political statistical research
into the political situation with the following results. I divided
the seats held by Tories into four categories:

(a) those in which the Conservative majority in 1924 was
over 3000
(b) -do- -do- between 3000 and 2000
(c) -do- -do- between 2000 and 1000
(d) -do- -do- under 1000.

I obtained the following results: Seats held under
(a) 283
(b) 47
(c) 50
(d) 33
My present impression is that the Government stand to lose the
majority of seats held by a majority of 2000 and under. Naturally
they will not lose all these seats but then they will lose some in
which the majority is greater. If therefore for the purpose of a
forecast, one assumes that the 83 seats held by majorities under
2000 are lost, the result would be the return of Baldwin [4] to
power with a majority of about 49. I agree with Garvin that there
are no visible signs of a Liberal revival.

The most formidable fact in connection with the whole British
political situation is the growth in the unemployment figures.

Last week saw another 30,000 added to the total which now is well
over 1,350,000. As a result of this increase in unemployment,
particularly in the coal mining and iron and steel trades, I am
told that the Conservative members representing industrial
constituencies are up in arms over the Government's hesitation to
promise any bold move in regard to the safeguarding of iron and
steel. Whether this feeling will become a formidable revolt or not
is, I think, impossible to gauge but I wish that Walter Elliot's
[5] really bright idea of applying poor law conditions to
industries applying for safeguarding was likely to obtain careful
consideration. Personally I think it is too novel and bright an
idea to receive anything but cold water from Cunliffe-Lister. [6]

UNITED STATES ELECTION

The overwhelming victory of Hoover [7]in the Election was very
unexpected here. The papers had been forecasting a really close
fight. It now remains to be seen what action Hoover will take in
order to attempt to liquidate his promises in regard to the
assistance to agriculture. I certainly think that it is possible
that action taken by the United States may considerably increase
the economic significance of the next Imperial Conference and it
has occurred to me that you may consider whether it is desirable
to ask Dow [8] in New York to keep a pretty careful watch on the
development of measures to assist the farming community and
perhaps to send copies of important papers and statements to you
and also to me.

What I have in mind is that Hoover may find it essential to try
and bring into operation some measure to take the place of the
McNaryHaugen Bill [9] which, as you know, passed both the
Legislative Chambers but received the veto of President Coolidge.

Any really large scale move in the United States to assist the
American wheat farmer in regard to the marketing of his products
might have such repercussions as almost to force an Imperial
Conference to take a bolder attitude in regard to Empire economic
developments.

INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE OF AGRICULTURE (contd)

While in Rome I discussed with the British Delegates and also with
some of the representatives of the Dominions and India, the
desirability of arranging for a quarterly meeting in London at
which the representatives of the Dominions might meet Thompson
[10] who, at the present time, acts on behalf of all the
Governments of the Empire on the Permanent Committee of the
International Institute. I found general agreement that some such
arrangement was desirable and I have therefore written to Sir
Charles Howell Thomas, who was the senior British Delegate and who
is the Permanent Head of the Department of Agriculture, suggesting
that he should take the initiative in arranging for such meetings.

I enclose a copy of my letter to Sir Charles Thomas.

Yours sincerely,
F. L. MCDOUGALL