(Due to arrive Canberra 8.10.28)

My dear P.M.,

Chamberlain [1] is evidently a very sick man. The photographs of
his departure oft his health trip to the West Indies were rather
alarming and would give one to think that he had had a stroke, but
I am assured that this was not so. He is 65, has taken no exercise
for years, has done himself very satisfactorily in the way of food
and drink, and has consistently overworked. Added to which he is
much the same type as his father, who cracked rather suddenly at
about his age. Then when he returns from his trip he has a
strenuous election before many months. And I am told that
Birmingham is not the safe Chamberlain preserve that it has been.

It would, I think, be a great loss were he not to come back to the
Foreign Office. He is extremely good with foreigners and has but
little of the traditional British contempt for them, which they
are not slow to realise. He is very good with Mussolini, Briand
[2] and Stresemann [3], and has been as good as anyone without
divine patience can be with the Americans. If he goes, I don't
know who has any particular claims or qualifications for the job
of Foreign Secretary. I suppose Cushendun [4] would carry on till
the election. (This has been confirmed in the Press since writing
the above.) After that, I don't think the party or the country
would stand Winston [5], who would no doubt covet the job.

I don't see that there is anyone except Birkenhead [6] who could
take on the Foreign Office as a permanency. I am sure he would do
it remarkably well if he kept himself in hand a bit. I know from
the best of sources that he was spoken to about his method of
conducting himself in this last six months by Lord Balfour [7],
who is regarded as the Elder Statesman par excellence. No doubt if
the Foreign Office was offered to him, it would be accompanied by
a very strict reminder from either Balfour or Baldwin [8] that he
was to mend his ways.

The 'Daily Express' published a statement yesterday that
Birkenhead was going to the City, which I hope will turn out not
to be the case.

Neville Chamberlain [9] is a great favourite of Baldwin's, and I
have heard it said in responsible quarters that if he set his cap
at the Foreign Office, he would have a good chance of succeeding
his brother. I know that he (Neville Chamberlain) was offered the
Treasury four years ago, but at that time his solid virtue
prompted him to take a Ministry (Health) that he knew something
about and at which he could shine.

I expect Winston will remain at the Treasury where he has been
quite a success. It is quite a different matter his being at the
Treasury to being at the Foreign Office. At the Treasury his
periodical effervescence can be restrained by his colleagues, but
at the Foreign Office he would get the country hopelessly involved
by brain-wave speeches.

Walter Guinness, now Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries, is
said to be not much good but by reason of his great wealth is
thought to be a great source of comfort to party funds. I hear him
spoken of as being in the running for a rise of a not very
important nature. He may go to one of the Service Departments,
such as Air. Hoare [10] might go from Air to the Admiralty to
replace Bridgeman [11] who is retiring.

Baldwin has said publicly that some of the younger men of the
Party are to be given a chance after the next election. This
means, I suppose, Ormsby-Gore [12], Duff Cooper [13], Walter
Elliot [14], etc.

But the Foreign Office and Dominions Office are the important
posts as far as we are concerned. There are forces working against
Amery [15], but personally I should doubt if they will displace
him. The Foreign Office will need wise guidance in the next year
or so, with Reparations and the Rhineland Evacuation looming
ahead, as well as relations with America, Disarmament, Kellogg
Pact aftermath, and the general European situation to be carefully
handled.

Sir Ronald Lindsay [16], promises to pull the Foreign Office
together again after Tyrrell's [17] rather slack administration.

There are signs already in this direction.

I am continuing to collaborate with Sir Charles Nathan on the
North Australia development business. [18] I understand that he
proposes to suggest to you that when he leaves England, the
negotiations should be continued by me. As he was proposing to
frame his plans on this basis, I had to tell him that I knew it
was in your mind soon after the election to consider the
possibility of translating me to another sphere. He seemed rather
disturbed at this and is writing you by this mail on the subject.

I don't know how you feel in your mind about the relative
importance of the proposed American appointment and the job that I
am doing here. Personally I should think there was more for me to
do here, and, from a personal point of view, I should be most
relieved to hear that you had decided to deal with the problem of
our representation in America by some method other than sending me
there. I am still, of course, prepared to go if you want me to,
but, as I say, I most heartily hope some benevolent spirit makes
you decide otherwise. [19]

As to remaining here-if I had an assistant who could take the bulk
of the hack-reading and devilling off my hands, I could increase
my usefulness in this job twofold. The job seems to be growing
every week and the burden of reading and chores is very heavy. I
could make very good use indeed of Officer [20] here, although I
suppose it is asking too much to put this up to you. I realise
that his coming here would leave a gap at Canberra, but as you are
calling for applicants for the new Canberra posts, you might get a
good man of the right type to replace him.

Tom Jones [21] regrets Haldane [22] death very much. They used to
lunch or dine together every few weeks, together with one or two
scientists or leaders in various walks of life. They were
apparently most interesting and informative meals as Haldane was
in the habit of leading off with 'Well, tell us what has been
happening in your particular activity'. But for his political
affiliations, Tom Jones thinks that he would have been classed
with Balfour as a wise counsellor whose guidance would have been
sought and utilised by the Government. He apparently kept himself
in close touch with a very wide range of activities.

The Berry brothers are coming to the front as a newspaper-owning
group in this country. I have heard on good authority that they
now own 500 publications of various sorts. The two remaining
brothers are Gomer Berry and Sir William Berry. Lord Buckland, who
was Henry Seymour Berry, was killed whilst riding recently. [23]

I write a letter by this mail on the effect of disestablishment of
the Church here on our Church in Australia. It is not worth your
reading as the subject matter is very much in the future. But if
you do happen to see it, please try and forget that I haven't been
inside a church for many years, as otherwise the crozier and
reredos atmosphere that I have been at pains to produce would be
ruined!

In such odd moments as I get, I am trying to get some
understanding of the unspeakable subject of international finance.

In consequence, I find the leaders in the financial press becoming
rather less nonsense. They are probably just as much nonsense as
they ever were, but this, I suppose, is a question of relativity.

I see that you had a debate in the Senate on May 17th on the Pan
Pacific Labour Congress. I am sending in another letter by this
mail information that I have got from the Foreign Office about
this organisation that definitely places its Bolshevik nature, if
such confirmatory proof is necessary.

As you may be away from Canberra on work in connection with the
election when this mail arrives, I am sending a copy of the
'Confidential' letter (not this or other personal and confidential
letters) to Henderson [24] as well.

By the way, owing to recent deaths there are several vacancies in
the Order of Merit at present. Haig [25], Hardy [26] and Haldane
and I think one or two others. The Order is limited to 24 members
but there were only 16 members living at the beginning of 1928,
and, as I say, there have been several vacancies created through
deaths since then.

I am, Yours sincerely,
R.G. CASEY