Departmental Dispatch 17/1948 BATAVIA, 21 May 1948

SECRET

GENERAL POLITICAL SITUATION

Since my last Despatch [1] the only progress made in the current
political negotiations has been in the work of the various sub-
committees, all relevant details of which have been for-warded to
you by our Delegation on the Committee of Good Offices.

2. The Dutch are now placing considerable importance on the
Federal Conference which is to commence at Bandoeng on 26th May,
and which will be composed of representatives of the future member
states of the United States of Indonesia, of member states yet to
be formed and of minority groups. Observers from territories where
the population has 'so far been unable to consolidate its
political views', such as East and Middle Java, will also be
admitted (see Government Information Service handout No.A.E.863
[2] of 12th May forwarded to you on 14th May). Though the Dutch
have denied that this Conference is in any way a Constituent
Assembly the decisions of which will be considered binding, it is
patent that it will be a Constituent Assembly in function, if not
in name, and that the Dutch regard its deliberations and decisions
as of the utmost importance. They envisage the Conference as
extending over several months. In my opinion it will take
precedence over any other negotiations, particularly in view of
the approaching election in the Netherlands. It is significant
that Dr. Idenburg, the former Deputy Lieutenant Governor-General,
has now returned to Batavia with Dr. Koets, the former Secretary
to Van Mook's Cabinet, and Dr. Bannier, of the Ministry for
Overseas Territories. It is reported that Dr. Idenburg is to be
responsible for organising the office of the High Commissioner of
the Netherlands-Indonesian Union. The Netherlands Ministers
Lieftinck and Gotzen are also coming to the Indies for discussions
in the financial and administrative fields, and were due to leave
the Netherlands on 18th May.

3. In the meantime, the all-Indonesian National Front, in co-
operation with GAPKI (the Federation of Indonesian independence
Movements with headquarters at Makassar), has organised a similar
conference to be held in Batavia for three days commencing on 24th
May. A statement issued by the preparatory Committee of this
Conference says that it will concern itself with discussions
regarding the establishment of the Interim Government, the United
States of Indonesia and the Netherlands-Indonesian Union and with
the organisation of a permanent All-Indonesia Congress. The
statement continues that the Conference will not be hostile to the
Federal Conference to be held at Bandoeng nor is it 'to fill up
the shortcomings of the outcome of the Federal Conference'. About
seventy-five delegates will attend.

4. The participation of GAPKI in the Indonesian National
Conference has precipitated a crisis in the East Indonesian
parliament. The Government had already accepted the invitation to
the Federal Conference at Bandoeng and selected its delegates,
some of whom were members of GAPKI. However, a conference of GAPKI
at Makassar early in this month (resolutions from which I attach
to this Despatch [3]) opposed the Bandoeng Conference. The East
Indonesian Parliament assembled yesterday evening to discuss the
question, but no information is yet available as to the outcome of
the debate.

5. It is still clear that the Dutch are determined to make every
attempt to retain political and economic control of Indonesia and
the Bandoeng Conference must be regarded as a major move in this
policy. if the statement [attached herewith] [4] by the spokesman
of the Government Information Service is any indication of the
Dutch attitude, then it is apparent that the Dutch hope to use
this Conference to by-pass the Republic altogether. While it is
admitted that the Republic will eventually have to become a member
of the United States of Indonesia, the reaching of an agreement
whereby this might be effected is now held to be a matter of
secondary importance. The main object now is to get on with the
organisation of the Federation among those states and other
territories which are willing to co-operate. Success in this
policy would effectively isolate the Republic and the close
participation of the Netherlands Delegation in the sponsorship and
business of the Conference leaves the immediate future of the
Republic and the talks under the Committee of Good Offices very
much in the air.

6. Despite the general air of pessimism regarding the Netherlands-
Republican negotiations, I myself do not believe that, even should
there be a complete breakdown, there is much likelihood of another
police action, as is considered probable in some quarters. The
Dutch can already bring considerable pressure to bear on the
Republic through such measures as their sea blockade and the
effective organisation of independent states in the territories
they occupy. Moreover, apart from considerations of cost and
international repercussions, military operations could be quite
disastrous to present attempts to organise a Federation and I am
confident that those responsible for policy are sufficiently aware
of this to dismiss any suggestion for military action.