1. My colleagues and I are gravely concerned about the prospective
world shortage of wheat. You know, I think, that Sir Ben Smith,
the Minister of Food, has been in Washington recently to discuss
the situation with the United States Administration and with the
President.

2. Very briefly, world import requirements exceed by at least 5
and half million tons the amount of wheat which we can at present
rely upon from the four main exporting countries during the period
from 1st January to 30th June, 1946. In order to bridge the gap it
will be necessary to make severe cuts in the amounts asked for by
importing countries. Some of these demands could probably have
been scaled down a little without causing undue hardship; but the
drastic cuts that will be necessary to close this gap will cause
real suffering in many countries. Our own requirements here will
not be met in full, and we shall find it hard to make the
economies needed.

3. The consequences of famine either in Europe or in Asia during
the next few months will be very grave. In Europe I am specially
concerned about Germany. The ration there is already very low and
substantial further cuts will bring starvation and unrest which,
apart altogether from humanitarian considerations, will increase
our military commitments and retard Europe's economic recovery by
reducing the export of essential supplies from Germany,
particularly the coal which is so urgently needed. In Asia, I need
hardly emphasise the political dangers of famine in India at the
present time. in these circumstances it is obviously of vital
importance to ensure that maximum quantities are exported from all
producing countries.

4. In the calculations that have just been made in Washington
covering exports and imports during the six months to the end of
June, Australia is being counted upon to export wheat and flour
amounting in terms of wheat equivalent to a total of 1,100,000
tons. I believe this is based upon a recent estimate given to the
Cereals Committee [1] in Washington by Mr. McCarthy. it would mean
the export by Australia of an unusually high proportion of her
supplies during this part of the year and the physical collection
and movement of this quantity will, I know, present considerable
difficulty under present conditions. But the world's need is so
urgent that I am sure that the Australian Government will make a
supreme effort to achieve this export figure. May I appeal to you
to give this matter your personal attention and to let me know
whether, as I earnestly hope, we may count upon Australia for this
quantity.