IMMEDIATE [BRONX]

Reference P. M. Dept. telegram 140. [2] Situation at present is
that Far Eastern situation is largely if not entirely in the hands
of the President who is said to be still working on his proposed
message to the Japanese Emperor. As I understand it this message
will have some sting in it, but will not in itself constitute the
'warning'. Dependent on the terms of the Emperor's reply, the
President will then send his warning and presumably warnings of
all the rest of us will follow.

As to an American assurance to Thailand, State Department has been
emphasising to the President the constitutional difficulty of such
a step.

Secretary of State [3] has been trying to get the United States
army and navy to show naval and air activity in the Gulf of Siam
in order to hearten Thailand.

The President has to watch out that his activities, prior to the
Far Eastern situation reaching a breaking point, do not enable his
opponents here to say that 'the United States is acting in advance
as if already an ally of Britain' which would increase his
political difficulties.

I have consulted the British Ambassador [4] who does not believe
there is anything immediate that we can say or do to advantage.

CASEY