The situation has deteriorated disastrously. After the meagre
information of the last two days, full reports to hand today. The
position as I see it is that the Germans have followed up tank
thrust towards Rouen and have established strong forces on the
south bank of the Seine in the region of Vernon. Driving south of
Rethel they have crossed the Marne at Chalons; only advance forces
across here but every indication that position will be
consolidated. This means that the Germans across the River
obstacle both to the west and east of Paris and pressing from
north French troops covering Paris. In my view the French win be
unable to hold pincer movement from east and west converging on
point south of Paris, with the result that, if the French
endeavour to hold Paris, Armies will be in danger of being cut off
and captured. Have some doubts even if decided to abandon Paris
serious losses in face of pincer movement from east and west. The
seriousness of the position cannot be exaggerated. Owing to the
rapidity of the German following up of tank thrust towards Rouen
some 8,000 British of the 51st Division and the greater part of
two French Divisions have been forced to surrender in the Le Havre
Peninsula.

The Prime Minister [2] returned from Paris and meeting later this
evening to hear result of his visit.

BRUCE