While D.W. gives you full information as it is received here, I
feel I should give you the impression I am forming. But it is for
you to decide whether you should keep them to yourself or pass
them on to your colleagues before they are confirmed or refuted by
official information. In considering my views you must bear in
mind that the present battle in France is being fought by French
and that even the General Staff here is not closely in touch with
hour by hour developments. Also that while the High Commissioners
receive through the medium of the Secretary of State for Dominion
Affairs, who attends all meetings, a summary of information
available to and views of War Cabinet this only second-hand and
without any opportunity questioning or discussion apart from
personal conversations with members of the War Cabinet and of the
General Staff.

As a result of this my views may be exaggerated. In view of
serious position and gravity of problems that arise if I am right,
I feel I should send them to you personally.

While recorded developments in the past 24 hours show no
substantial changes, position has apparently deteriorated
alarmingly. Seemingly the French First Army in addition to the
Ninth Army which was known to be in serious difficulties has been
dispersed and serious counter-offensives by either of these armies
appear out of the question. Dill's [1] report which now received
appears to show that the French reserves which have been brought
up insufficient to undertake successful counter-attack on grand
scale against the base of the bulge or against other points along
the line of the German advance. It appears to be contemplated that
the best that can be done is to establish a line east from Amiens
to endeavour to prevent penetration further southward. B.E.F. [2]
retiring southward to conform with French position and to prevent
communications being cut. This retirement contemplated to continue
as far as Amiens. This will mean part if not the whole of the
Belgian Army being cut off as retirement in conformity with
British and French movements could not be successfully achieved
owing to length of the arc to be covered. The above movements mean
the uncovering of the Channel ports and their occupancy by the
Germans in the near future. In view of the seriousness of the
position which this would create it would appear worth while
taking any measures to stop German advance even if it involved
throwing in almost recklessly of French reserves and risking of
major part of British Air Force. From conversations I have had it
appears that even extreme action of this character would not be
effective.

If the Germans reach the Channel ports subsequent developments
would probably be an intensive air offensive against the United
Kingdom or a drive to capture Paris or both undertaken
simultaneously. What could be achieved by offensive against the
United Kingdom is a matter for speculation as is effect upon
French of the capture of Paris.

I regret having to send you a cable of this character, and
reiterate it only expressed my own views. [3]

BRUCE