MOST IMMEDIATE

FOR THE PRIME MINISTER MOST SECRET PERSONAL FOR HIMSELF

Definite feeling of War Cabinet is that German-Soviet Agreement
will not be expanded into military alliance and that Soviet will
not give military assistance to Germany. This, however, is merely
a feeling, without any substantial evidence, and I am not
convinced that it is not wishful thinking. No Chief of Staff's
appreciation has been under consideration. Present intention is to
make no reply to German-Soviet statement until the Prime Minister
[1] speaks on Tuesday [2] in the House of Commons. Winston
Churchill [3] broadcasts tomorrow night, but will not deal with
it. Form of Prime Minister's speech is not yet determined.

I have urged strongly that every effort should be made including
pressure by the Vatican and Franco [4] to prevent Mussolini [5]
allowing himself to be used by Germany in connection with 'peace
offensive'. Also that plans must be formulated immediately for
intensive diplomatic action in Rome, Washington, Tokyo, Burgos and
Near East in anticipation of the possibility of the German-Soviet
Agreement becoming a military alliance.

Dominance presents such dangers to all these countries and in fact
to the whole world that it should be possible by resolute skin and
constructive diplomacy to build a strong front against the common
danger.

I confess that I am not hopeful and consider that it will require
more vision, determination and skill than British diplomacy has
recently shown if anything is to be accomplished.

I take a most serious, I hope too serious, a view of the
situation. I feel that it is not being faced as it should be and
that it is imperative that I should send you my views for what
they are worth .[6]

BRUCE