My dear Prime Minister,

Tomorrow this country goes to the polls and I am still utterly
vague as to what to anticipate as a result of the elections. All
three Parties express extreme confidence and I believe that each
of them sincerely believes that they are going to have remarkable
successes. The only thing I feel inclined to tip at this stage is
that the Conservatives will come back as the strongest party. This
is doubted in some quarters who believe that Labour is going to
secure an extraordinary advance. It is, however, quite possible
that the influence of Baldwin's [1] speeches during the last three
weeks will be to cause a very considerable number of the voters to
decide to give him their support.

Last Friday the 'Nation' published a list of 100 seats which they
stated could be regarded as certain to return Liberals.

I shall watch the results coming in tomorrow night with the very
greatest interest not untinged with some personal excitement. This
for two reasons-I have so many friends and acquaintances in the
last House that it will be very interesting to watch their fate,
but the second and much more important reason is because any
marked political change will necessitate an intensification of
educational work immediately after the election.

IMPERIAL CONFERENCE

In my last letter [2] I told you that I hoped to be able to
forward to you a memorandum on which I had been working for some
considerable time. This is now finished in its first form and I am
enclosing a copy herewith. It is entitled: 'The growing dependence
of British Industry upon Empire markets'. In it I have made an
attempt, within a reasonably short space, to assess competitive
factors which British exports have to face in world trade, then to
show the way in which British trade is meeting competition in
foreign markets, and also to show how British trade has fared in
the sheltered markets of the Empire.

As I told you last week, I am suggesting that the Empire Marketing
Board should publish this memorandum as a grey paper but before it
is published, it will probably receive a good deal of revision, in
the course of which I may be able to make the presentment of the
case a little more interesting. I feel that this memorandum should
serve as a useful first instalment towards the documentation for
the economic side of the Imperial Conference, because it does set
out the position that British industry has to face in the world
with some clearness and I hope with accuracy.

I very much hope that you will find time to read the memorandum
and to let me have some notes on it.

THE LEAGUE OF NATIONS ASSEMBLY

You will remember that in my letter of the 18th April [3] I very
tentatively suggested that you should consider the desirability of
appointing me as one of the Substitute Delegates for Australia at
the forthcoming Assembly and that, after my return from Geneva, I
wrote-and the High Commissioner [4] also wrote making an
alternative suggestion to the effect that you might consider the
desirability of appointing me as an additional Substitute Delegate
merely to deal with the one question of the economic activities of
the League. As you will probably just have received my letter of
the 18th April, I thought it desirable today to arrange to send
you a cable suggesting that the latter plan was preferable to the
former. Whether you decide to adopt the suggestion or not will
depend, I suppose, upon the importance you attach to getting the
economic work of the League on a sound basis. [5]

There is, however, one further point that I should like to mention
in this connection. In the event of Labour forming a Government in
this country, the new Government would be likely to try and be as
effectively represented at Geneva as possible and under those
circumstances a very useful purpose might be served if I were in
Geneva during a part of the Assembly with the status of a
Substitute Delegate in order that I might attend the meetings of
the British Empire Delegations and make really effective contacts
with the British representatives.

Yours sincerely,
F. L. MCDOUGALL