Antarctic.

Unofficial but expert assessment of the probable United States
plans now that the Task Force [1] is returning has been obtained
here.

All evidence indicates that the Task Force had instructions to
avoid the Falkland Islands Dependencies but to build up grounds
for official claim in other areas arranged in following priority:

(A) Pacific Sector
(B) Eastern Ross Dependency
(C) Western Ross Dependency
(D) Eastern Sector of Australian Antarctic Territory
(E) Wilkes Land and 'American Highland'-
(Hinterland of Princess Elizabeth Land) in Western sector of
Australian Antarctic Territory
(F) Any other areas within flying distance of aircraft carriers.

2. Of these areas it is thought that Americans can be confident of
getting
(A) without much argument and they have a strong case for (B) and
a comparatively weak one for the other areas, but all would be
useful bargaining count[ers].

It is thought that they may have in mind a formal claim covering
the whole sector from Western boundary of Falkland Islands
Dependencies (longitude 80 degrees W) westwards to Adelie Land
(longitude 142 degrees E).

3. Above is being passed to you although it is largely guesswork
because-
(i) It is most expert assessment available in United Kingdom.

(ii) The urgency of the situation necessitates working hypothesis
on which to base action in immediate future.

You will recall Beckett's advice that no time should be lost in
formulating tentative plans to anticipate light turning red. [2]

4. There is abundant evidence that when American Task Forces have
returned to the United States official claims will be put forward
as a result of the discoveries made.

This means that official American pronouncement might well be made
within the next month or two.

5. The Times, of 1st March, reports Argentine Foreign Minister as
saying that Argentina and Chile propose the issue of a joint
invitation to an international conference in Buenos Aires to
decide legal claims of various nations to lands in Antarctic.

This suggestion is not new but it may precipitate matters and
hasten an American announcement.

6. Some officials here feel that if a conference is to be held it
might be advisable for the United Kingdom, in conjunction with
Australia and New Zealand, to take the initiative in convening
such a conference.

This would provide an opportunity of finding out exactly what the
foreign claims amount to and 'would leave us (United Kingdom)
still free to decide whether we wish to settle by negotiation,
refer to U.N.O., or the International Court'.

These officials have Falkland Island Dependencies chiefly in mind
and realise that such a move would probably not commend itself to
Australia or New Zealand who would be more interested in stalling
such a conference while we established permanent bases in our own
sections.

These are merely reported for your information.

It is doubtful whether they will secure general approval here even
at official level.