Repeated to London No. 45.

I have seen Foreign Office telegram No. 728 to Tokyo. [1]

Estimates of Japan's supplies are no doubt correct and provide a
strong case economically for the stoppage of all supplies to
Japan. But politically the fact remains that the Japanese people
are short of rice, wheat and cooking oil, and that it would be
easy to work up popular indignation against us on the ground that
while we have plenty we are denying them supplies. As the
Netherlands East Indies and United States are allowing supplies of
oil and wheat it is against us that indignation would be
concentrated. So long as supplies are being obtained elsewhere,
our prohibitions can do no more than change the source of
supplies.

I assume that we do not desire such popular movement and risk an
attack on us at present.

I therefore repeat my view in my telegram No. 285 [2] that subject
to the final sentence of this telegram we allow small supplies to
come to Japan explaining that we can only grant licences for
shipments from time to time because we have to conserve our own
and United Kingdom supplies. I would represent this as a favour to
Japan in view of their temporary shortages.

Exports to Germany are not now possible through Siberia. I suggest
we take advantage of the uncertain international position to delay
decision for a time.