We are much exercised by the present position in the Middle East
and I would like to put one or two points quite shortly to you.

The experiences in Greece and Crete indicate that the decisive
factor is overwhelming air strength. This, if developed across the
Mediterranean waters between Crete and Cyrenaica, may seriously
affect movements of the Mediterranean Fleet, while the
establishment of German air bases in Syria would threaten not only
Irak and Palestine but the Suez Canal itself
I know enough of the tank position to believe that large and rapid
reinforcements over and above those recently and boldly sent
through the Mediterranean are difficult. But what of aircraft?
It is alarming to read of the enormous German preponderance.

Cannot large and urgent reinforcements of fighter planes go to the
Middle East, particularly in view of the good production of these
types in Great Britain and the not unsatisfactory reserves?
Further, is it not possible to make some attempt at occupation of
Syria by British Forces? No doubt there has been some reluctance
to do this because of the possible effect upon American public
opinion. But I am assured by Casey [3] on good authority in
Washington that American opinion would applaud aggressive British
action. Anything would appear to be better than allowing Germany
to make her foothold in Syria sufficiently strong to enable a jump
forward to be accomplished.

I again emphasise to you that Australia and New Zealand have a
large stake of four Divisions in the Middle East, subject to
deductions in Greece and Crete, in addition to their vital
interest in the preservation of one of the great Empire bastions.

A defeat around the Suez would be a calamity of the first
magnitude, and it appears to us that the most effective counter is
in the air.

I know you will have been working on this like a tiger and that
you are losing sight neither of Libya nor of Syria, but you will
understand the strength of the feeling of my colleagues and myself
on the matter.

Any information that we could have periodically as to air strength
would be invaluable and would enable us to appreciate the position
clearly.

I have given some emphasis to Syria because any real establishment
by Germany in that country would mean the encirclement of Turkey
and by cutting her off from external sources of supply would tend
to make her powerless to resist Axis demands for the passage of
troops and tanks into Palestine and Irak.

Notwithstanding our anxieties, I find my people here in good heart
and determined to see the struggle through to victory.

Kind regards. [4]

MENZIES