256 Mr R. G. Casey, Minister to the United States, to Department of External Affairs

Cablegram 94 WASHINGTON, 20 May 1940, 11.10 p.m.

Bruce's telegram 338 [1] repeated to me.

I have seen Tokyo telegrams on which this was based and later Tokyo telegrams. I note that Craigie believes the present situation is that the Japanese Cabinet has considered all angles and determined against any proposal for forcible measures regarding the N.E.I. although German successes might encourage the Japanese extremists to seek a new southward adventure.

Yesterday Lord Lothian [2] was informed in reply to informal enquiry that the U.S. Government intended to maintain their present policy, i.e. keep fleet at Hawaii as a deterrent to Japanese adventures. At the same time they will avoid giving provocation to Japan by such action as an embargo on war materials. [3]

1 On file AA: A1608, A41/1/1, ix. It reported the view of Sir Robert Craigie, U.K. Ambassador to Japan, that Japan was more likely to make economic demands on rather than attack the Netherlands East Indies, but that the United Kingdom should be prepared for any eventualities.

2 U.K. Ambassador to the United States.

3 This cablegram was repeated as no. 21 to S. M. Bruce, High Commissioner in London.

[AA: A981, JAPAN 181, iv]